Modi, Shah drive BJP’s big push in Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP is making a big push to open account in the Assembly elections in Kerala. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah have raised their stakes to achieve what is considered an uphill task.

Mr. Modi will be spending six days (May 6 to 11) in Kerala for electioneering while Mr. Shah is to stay put in the State for two weeks (from May 1 to the end of the campaign on May 14). Nine Central Ministers will be joining them for the campaign. Actor Suresh Gopi, who was recently nominated to the Rajaya Sabha, will be everywhere.

What gives confidence to Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah is the fact that BJP had led in some Assembly segments in the 2014 Parliament elections. The party also has a new ally in Bharatiya Dhama Jana Sena (BDJS) — a new party formed by the leader of the Ezhava community in the State Vellappally Natesan.

The party is also trying a new strategy to win the elections under direct dictate of Central leadership. The Sangh Parivar organisations, especially RSS cadre, are being mobilised and VHP leader has been nominated as State president of the party. The trick is to create the impression that BJP could win in Kerala where its vote share had always hovered from 5 to 12 per cent for last 25 years.

“We have to generate confidence among the people that the party will come to power," Mr. Shah told a meeting of the Kerala core committee of the party in Kochi in February. He told the State leaders that the BJP is contesting “to win and rule”. The idea was to increase the confidence of party cadre who were not fighting to win in the past and occasionally even traded in votes.

However, the national leadership’s strategy of inducting an ‘outsider’ as State president and candidates from the film world has not pleased some of the party leaders in the State who were hoping to climb the ladder as candidates and nominees to various posts. However, they are all silent as the national leadership has made it clear that dissidence would not be tolerated. However, there is some fear that the vigour of the campaign would be affected by lack of enthusiasm by the leaders. The leadership hopes to make up for this with whirlwind campaign of Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah.

Even the party’s new ally BDJS did not find favour with some local leaders and this caused some problems for the leadership during the elections to civic bodies. Now, the alliance has been formalised and BDJS has been allocated 37 of the 140 seats to contest. Yet, there is uncertainty about the number of votes that the new party can sway as its prowess had never been tested. Its performance as a fledgling in the civic elections was not very promising. Besides, the party does not have full support of all units of the grass-roots organisation of Ezhavas, SNDP Yogam, which Mr. Natesan heads.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the party had led in four Assembly segments in Thiruvananthapuram Parliamentary constituency. Former Minister of State O. Rajagopal was the party’s candidate in Thiruvananthapuram and he was pitted against former Minister of State Shashi Tharoor. Mr. Tharoor won with a margin of more than 15000 votes. However, he had trailed behind Mr. Rajagopal in Kazhakoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram and Nemom segments.

Mr. Rajagopal is now contesting for the Assembly seat from Nemom where he had a lead of 18000 votes in the Parliament elections. Though it may appear to be a walk over for Mr. Rajagopal given his lead in the Parliament election two years ago, there are some factors to be considered. He achieved a lead over Mr. Shashi Tharoor when Mr. Tharoor was in a bad patch and at his lowest popularity following allegations against him over the death of his wife.  Besides, BJP has often scored higher percentage of votes in the Parliamentary elections but failed to do so in the Assembly elections where the contest is between two leading political fronts (UDF and LDF) to capture power.

Mr. Rajagopal is pitted against sitting member V. Sivankutty of CPI (M) and V. Surendran Pillai of Janata Dal (U). In the Vattiyoorkavu segment, the State president of the party Kummanam Rajasekharan himself is contesting against T. N. Seema of CPI (M), and sitting member K. Muraleedharan (Congress) who is son of former Chief Minister K. Karunakaran. In Kazhakoottam, former State president of the party K. Muraleedharan is pitted against sitting member M. A. Waheed (Congress) and Kadakampally Surendran (CPI-M).

BJP has fielded cricketer S. Sreesanth from Thiruvananthapuram. He is batting against State Health Minister V. S. Sivakumar and Antony Raju of Kerala Congresss (D). The fielding of Sreesanth in Thiruvananthapuram at the initiative of the national leadership had not gone well with some of the party workers in the city and he has strong contenders to deal with.

In Manjeswaram constituency in Kasaragod district, the BJP has been runner up for decades in the Assembly elections. It also used to come second in Kasaragod constituency. However, victory has always eluded the party. One factor that could go against the BJP in North Kerala is shift in Muslim voter preference in favour of CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front.

However, these battles will be prestigious fights for Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah who are trying to break the barrier in Kerala though strategies imposed from the top. Another failure, after the rout in the Bihar elections, could dent their standing. However, most observers feel that BJP will in any case improve its vote share in Kerala.