Threat of growth of BJP helped leftist parties in Kerala

The growth of BJP in Kerala was supposed to have eroded the strength of leftist parties in the State. On the contrary, it helped them to consolidate, the results of civic elections show.

Secular support for the leftist parties was actually eroding. Some fringe elements had left the CPI (M) to join BJP and many sympathisers and activists were disheartened by the erosion of idealism in the party. Some will not vote for the party anymore while others will not vote at all. Sectionalism was rampant.

The spectre of BJP helped the leftist and secular forces to unite.  Bridges were built between CPI (M) leadership and Opposition Leader V. S. Achuthanandan. Many people had realised that BJP will make a better performance this time. The polling percentages went up with consolidation of secular and minority votes. The leftist parties made gains-- but significantly, not their minor constituents. In UDF, the Muslim League and Kerala Congress (Mani) more or less held on to their fortresses.

But, Congress suffered from complacency. It had confidence arising from victories in by-elections. It thought that victory would not be difficult and went about with its infightings. People could see that Congress was weakening. Though the government had taken several initiatives for development and welfare of people, things did not move fast enough. Follow-up was lacking. An aura of corruption enveloped the government and strategies like throwing counter attacks against the Opposition did not work. For, the electorate had already discounted allegations against the son of Mr. Achuthanandan and former Minister Elamaram Kareem.

Did the BJP grow? Its current national stature and communal postures have helped it gain entry into localities where it could not gain entry in the past. But it could not do better in its strongholds like Kasaragod and Palakkad. The media hype about BJP gains happened mainly on account of its performance in Thiruvananthapuram where the media is concentrated.

In Thiruvananthapuram, the party has a base. The city of bureaucrats is predominantly communal. But it is not the dangerous kind of communalism, but rather one fed and nurtured by issues faced in government service such as communal reservation. The career based communalism is something that would even find persons like former Additional Chief Secretary Babu Paul heading BJP’s campaign committee. It will swing towards whoever seems to be a winning candidate.

The problem the BJP faced in Thiruvananthapuram was that it was not able to find credible candidates with mass appeal in the civic elections. This time, it fielded better candidates and worked hard to be in touch with the voters. More money was spent than before to promote the candidates. And as a result, BJP could tap its existing potential to some extent.

Is the LSG poll a pointer to the Assembly election? The answer is no. The UDF has performed badly in civic polls and yet won the Assembly elections in the past. The BJP’s future performance will depend upon a number of factors including the vulnerability displayed by Narendra Modi in Bihar elections. The LDF will have to do better to rout UDF in the Assembly polls.

There are also indications that people are getting tired of the games that mainstream political parties play. Twenty20, the organization formed by Anna-Kitex group of companies, has seized control of Kizhkkambalam panchayat. Pempilai orumai of Munnar has won in three seats. A people’s movement formed by a Congress rebel James Panthammakkal gained control of East Eleri village panchayat in Kasaragod. Another people’s moment formed against the Muslim League captured power in two municipalities and a village panchayat in Malappuram district. Other alliances have also won seats in the district. In Idukki district, Church-backed High Range Protection Samithi won 11 out of 30 seats in newly formed Kattappana municipality.

However, there is no an immediate threat to mainstream political parties, but development of a Delhi-like situation in future could not be ruled out totally. At the moment, those are simply local movements.